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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still