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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.