How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
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The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Casey Hansen
Casey Hansen

Elena is a professional baccarat strategist with over a decade of experience in casino gaming and player education.